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Markets are freaking out about tariffs, but their impact lags by 45-days. When price spikes and shortages hit, as they have with cars, we’ll find out how resilient our Ozempic bodies, Temu wardrobes, and swaggering politicians really are. Growing up in the 80’s, socks and dishes were treasured and restored like rare Egyptian artifacts. And a 13-inch Zenith TV was the pinnacle of American innovation. It rejected every antenna and weighed more than a teenage sumo wrestler. Are we really ready to cut the cord on a world of conveniences?
Why are we starting trade wars and suddenly talking about manufacturing in the year 2025? Aren’t we all supposed to be food influencers and yogis? (Foogis…?) Is there something magical about manufacturing that Donald Trump knows and we don’t? Yes and no. There’s so much more to this story that isn’t being told. Until now.
In this 9-part video and newsletter series, not only will I answer ‘what can manufacturing do for you?’ but specifically:
- Two strings that NEED manufacturing? (this post)
- What’s the hell is wrong with our military?
- Why do we need to bring back ALL industries, not just strategic ones?
- Can America bring manufacturing back?
- Will manufacturing bring good jobs back?
- What’s Trump’s Master Plan?
- What does this trade war reveal about the fate of America?
- Is this a good strategy and will it work?
- Is there a better way?
What Really Holds Up Our Economy?
To understand this entire series means understanding the two pillars holding up the US economy, as we know it.
[subscribe_to_unlock_form]Pillar #1: The US Dollar
The first is reserve currency status, a byproduct of being the strongest nation emerging from World War II. This status means there’s massive global demand for dollars and dollar-based debt. Foreigners need dollars to buy oil, bonds, and settle all sorts of contracts.
Meanwhile, we’ve run multiple $2 Trillion+ annual budget deficits and are about to do it again. Not to mention a nearly-$1T annual trade deficit.
| US Trade and budget deficits | ||||
| Year | Trade Deficit ($ Billions) | Budget Deficit | Total Tax Revenues | Budget Deficit as % of Tax Revenues |
| 2015 | 504.8 | 438.9 | 3,249.9 | 13.5 |
| 2016 | 502.3 | 585.6 | 3,266.7 | 17.9 |
| 2017 | 552.3 | 665.8 | 3,316.2 | 20.1 |
| 2018 | 627.7 | 779 | 3,328.7 | 23.4 |
| 2019 | 576.9 | 984.4 | 3,462.2 | 28.4 |
| 2020 | 652.8 | 3,131.9 | 3,420.2 | 91.6 |
| 2021 | 845 | 2,772.8 | 4,047.1 | 68.5 |
| 2022 | 971.1 | 1,375.5 | 4,896.1 | 28.1 |
| 2023 | 773.4 | 1,695 | 4,439 | 38.2 |
| 2024 | 803.5 | 1,833.8 | ,4918.8 | 37.3 |
What does this mean in practice? Americans get HARD GOODS from THE WORLD for PAPER WE PRINT. That’s nothing short of alchemy.
Our reserve currency status allows the US to carry more debt than the next four countries combined. A no-limit Amex Black Card from the world. We are the world’s worst trophy wife.
In fact, we generate so much debt that we even have our own buyer, the Federal Reserve (Fed), a pseudo governmental entity that has owned between 10-15% of US debt. When there aren’t enough buyers interested in our debt at the low rates we want to pay, the Fed dresses up in a trenchcoat and fake mustache to fill the demand hole in the market. Not good. We are scraping the upper limits of our benefactors’ tolerance.
Pillar #2: The Military
The second pillar is our military. It defends our financial supremacy the way the second Amendment defends the first. Yet both regularly overstep their missions by attacking, instead of defending. Little Gun targets nightclubs, Walmarts, and grade schools. Big Gun targets countries — Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.
Sometimes, Big Gun gets artsy and uses soft power to get its way. Soft power is a murky mix of debt, coups, bribes, arms deals, disinformation, spying, and subtle threats. In fact, there’s a live case study happening right now: Argentina.
This dynamic duo lets us run *seemingly* unlimited deficits with no one coming to collect.
You won’t be shocked to learn this system is hanging by a thread. That’s why markets convulse at wild gambles that might topple our Jenga economy.
All our actions stem from this reality, including the push for manufacturing capacity. In the next installment, I’ll cover how we’re failing to fortify our House of (Credit) Cards — and why manufacturing holds the key.
Sneak Peak of Episode 2:
Our Military Industrial Complex is a dinosaur that milks fat contracts to fight wars that don’t exist anymore. In conflict simulations against China, we’re toast each time. Here’s a clip of Anduril CEO Palmer Luckey, whose startup builds cheap, small drones for the military, explaining the problem. In the next episode, I’ll go deep into the shocking numbers.