Prediction: Paper Money is the Walking Dead
“In a time of exploding deficits, tax hikes will be unavoidable. Closing the cash loophole is one of the most effective ways to do it. So it’s with a twinge of sadness and nostalgia that I declare this decade to be the end of paper money. Don’t believe me? It’s already begun…”
Econovation, 2011, p.186
A paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that, in America, the share of transactions using cash has fallen in recent years. Until the mid-1990s the total value of all bills of $50 or less grew in line with the economy. From 1993 to 2013, however, the American economy grew in real (inflation-adjusted) terms by 65%, but notes of $50 or lower grew by just 19% (see chart).
A survey conducted by ING bank website eZonomics revealed some key findings. 38 percent of respondents said they were willing to go cash-free. Moreover, of the 34 percent that said they already rarely use cash, a staggering 78 percent said they expect to continue reducing cash usage going forward, propelling the abandonment and ultimate demise of the paper dollar.
US Commerce Goes Cashless
- Cash Might Be King, but They Don’t Care, Dec 2017
In Midtown and some other neighborhoods across New York City, cashless is fast on its way to becoming normal.
- Here’s Why Cashless Restaurants Are the Next Big Thing (Buh-Bye Benjamins, Hello Plastic!), Sep 2017
- Apple Pay And Digital Currency Mean Time Is Running Out For Physical Cash, Oct 2014
- Visa Will Give 50 Restaurants $10K Each To Upgrade Payment Tech If They Ban Cash, Jul 2017
Gen Z is about to kill cash, Apr 2018
From the fourth quarter last year to the first quarter of 2018, wallet payment spend rose 114%, the number of transactions has increased 38% and average ticket size is up 55%. That’s evidence of four important factors, Dangelmaier said: there’s greater acceptance, shoppers are more comfortable, they’re having a better checkout experience, and there are more repeat purchases.
Almost 2.1 billion consumers worldwide are expected to use mobile wallets for payments or money transfers by 2019. Juniper Research
Local Governments Go Cashless
Global push against cash
a major push toward a cashless society is being made in the European Union right now. Last May we learned that the 500 euro note is being completely eliminated, and just a few weeks ago the European Commission released a new “Action Plan” which instructs member states to explore “potential upper limits to cash payments”. In the name of “fighting terrorism”, this “Action Plan” discusses the benefits of “prohibitions for cash payments above a specific threshold” and it says that those prohibitions should include “virtual currencies (such as BitCoin) and prepaid instruments (such as pre-paid credit cards) when they are used anonymously.”
Even in the United States there are calls for a cashless system. For example, the former chief economist for the IMF wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal not too long ago in which he recommended the elimination of the $100 bill…
Some Countries Are Already There
- One Year After India Killed Off Cash, Here’s What Other Countries Should Learn from It
- India Could Become the First Digital, Cashless Society
- In Urban China, Cash Is Rapidly Becoming Obsolete
China Can’t Afford a Cashless Society, Sep 2018
the numbers suggest that cashlessness is rising and here to stay. January 2017 data reported by the Cyberspace Administration of China showed that 469 million users were registered on a mobile payment platform, and found an increase of 31.2 percent in total registered users compared to 2016 numbers. The China Internet Network Administration Center, another government bureau that collects usage data, indicated that the proportion of mobile payment usage in transactions rose from 57.7 percent to 67.5 percent from the end of 2016 to the end of 2017. In the cities, vendors ranging from brand-name stores to street food stalls have slapped colorful QR Code stickers from Alipay and Tencent—China’s two giant internet firms, which dominate online payments—near cash registers.
- People Are Hiding Cash in Their Microwaves as Sweden Gets Closer to Being the First Cashless Society with Negative Interest Rates (2015), Sweden May Go Cashless by 2023 (Aug 2018)
- Scandinavia – Leader in the War on Cash
The Smart Money: Are We on the Cusp of a Cashless Society?
3 Books on a cashless future.