Prediction: Google Will Make A Killing on Autonomous Cars

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Status: Uncertain

Prediction: Google’s strategy is to monetize the car

3. Expand the Pie – This is probably the least understood part of Google’s strategy. Google knows its hard to find new customers and compete with every new service. So it does something I spent a lot of time promoting at MasterCard and American Express – expanding the pie. In my case, it meant, promoting conversion from cash and checks to digital transactions, regardless of platform. With a bigger pie, everyone’s slice gets bigger. In Google’s case, that means expanding leisure time. That’s right, Google wants to make time. Google knows if you’re online and near a screen or smart device, they’ll be making money.

The two best examples of this are Glass and self-driving cars. With Glass,  Google wants to sit on your face – literally. Their glasses can deliver digital stimulation at times previously wasted pretending to care about the people around you. Smart cars liberate you from your fear of crushing skunks and navigating New Jersey. Now you can research stocks, listen to Google music, and work on Google Docs.

Deconstructing Google’s Strategy, 2013

What Happened

If we end up sitting around in self-driving cars watching ads, Google is going to make billions, May 2018

“New research from UBS predicts that US autonomous-vehicle revenue will reach $2.3 trillion by 2030—and 70% of the estimated is expected to come from selling experiences to the former drivers.”

“The second-biggest opportunity, or $472 billion, will be in in-car monetization: selling ads or services against the time spent in the car not driving. Not surprisingly, UBS thinks Waymo—or more broadly, Google’s parent company Alphabet—will be the dominant player in this category, perhaps capturing 60% of the revenue. UBS thinks Waymo’s combined opportunities in services and software make Waymo worth $75 billion today, or roughly 11% of Alphabet’s current valuation.”

What’s Next?

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Provocative predictions & prescriptions on where innovation, economics & culture will take us. Fearless. Funny.